Analysis of US EIA data: Crude oil inventories plummet on decline in imports, refinery inputs
New York - October 19, 2011
US crude inventories sank 4.729 million barrels to 332.899 million barrels the week ending October 14 as imports took a dive, trumping a drop in refinery inputs, data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Wednesday showed.
US crude imports were down 1.165 million barrels per day (b/d) at 7.921 million b/d, led by a 547,000 b/d drop on the US Atlantic Coast (USAC) to 672,000 b/d. US Gulf Coast (USGC) imports fell 401,000 b/d to 4.467 million b/d, while West Coast imports slid 287,000 b/d to 862,000 b/d.
US imports were well below the five-year average, continuing a trend seen throughout the year. The largest stock draw was seen on the USAC, where stocks fell 1.79 million barrels to 11.454 million barrels. The USGC was close behind, with a 1.316 million barrel draw to 162.439 million barrels.
That left USGC stocks 15.875 million barrels, or 8.9%, less than the five-year average, down from a slight surplus the week ending September 9.
Midwest stocks fell just 368,000 barrels to 93.657 million barrels, leaving a healthy 21.87 million barrel surplus to the five-year average.
Stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma – home of the New York Mercantile Exchange’s crude oil futures contract delivery – were up the second week in a row, climbing 471,000 barrels to 31.092 million barrels.
The overall need for imported barrels has lessened, due to refiners reducing runs. Refinery operations typically drop this time of year as refiners enter fall maintenance.
US refinery inputs at 14.407 million b/d the week ending October 14 were roughly on par with the five-year average.
US gasoline stocks dropped 3.324 million barrels to 206.271 million barrels during the week that ended October 14, outpacing analysts’ expectations of a 1.25-million-barrel draw. However, gasoline demand fell 412,000 b/d to 8.598 million b/d.
"The RBOB headline number was bullish on the surface and exports are very supportive, however the week-on-week demand data is horrid, down 4.6% and dropping below 9 million barrels to a very weak 8.5 [million b/d]," said Mike Guido, associate director of hedge fund sales at Macquarie.
Demand stands some 293,000 b/d below year-ago levels of 8.891 million b/d.
On the USAC, gasoline stocks at 51.638 million barrels were 1.593 million barrels less than the five-year average, down from a slight surplus during the week that ended October 7. A similar decline in inventories was seen in the USAC the same time last year.
Stocks declined even as imports of gasoline rose about 40,000 b/d to 458,000 b/d, with the bulk of the increase seen in the USAC, where imports rose 29,000 b/d to 409,000 b/d.
In distillates, inventories declined 4.266 million barrels to 149.739 million barrels, surpassing analyst expectations of a 1.1-million-barrel drop.
Heating oil stocks fell approximately 1 million barrels to 38.3 million barrels, including in the USAC where a 701,000-barrel stock draw put inventories at 30.81 million barrels, which is 8.647 million barrels, or 21.91%, below the five-year average. That's down from 19.26% the prior week, and an 18.83% surplus for the same week in 2010.
Distillate demand for rose 115,000 b/d to 4.183 million b/d the week that ended October 7 and was 230,000 b/d above the year-ago level of 3.954 million b/d.
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